Lok Sabha vs Assembly elections 2019: Setback for BJP?

This is the first major election since the Lok Sabha elections in May. Before going through it, let us take a look back:

About the Lok Sabha elections

Political parties do win with big majorities. But generally it happens because of a sudden surge of popularity which lasts only for a few weeks (Like with DMK in Tamil Nadu). At the moment, the general trend in the Hindi belt is that BJP is the most popular party. But it is not as popular as other parties put together. However, in the recent Lok Sabha elections, there was a big ‘magic’ wave in favour of BJP.

Some people might have been against or weary of the Government, a few months before the elections. But, certain facts, bad experiences, or anything else didn’t count if they thought of Modi. In 2014 he had said, “Give me 10 years and I will reform India”. Surely he deserved sufficient time.

The surge this April/May was certainly a big one. These elections are a test as to how long it lasts, and how dramatic it is.

Exit polls, as well as early trends showed BJP winning with a really big majority (and more so in Haryana). One wondered if they would need even need the support of Shiv Sena (their major ally), to form the Government. However, their lead began to fall, as seen from the results below:

No doubt the BJP did win. But as you can see, they got nowhere near the numbers they got in May.

Maharashtra Analysis

The Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), are allied in the state.

The NCP did much better than the Congress in spite of having stood in fewer seats.

Had the NCP been the senior partner, and projected a local leader, they would have probably done better. They would have probably made the BJP/Shiv Sena alliance a little unstable, and may have managed to form the Government later on. They might even have been able to form the Government immediately. It seems to be a common mistake for the Congress to be given/take too many seats in an alliance. They are hoping that they can somehow repeat their past performances. But they should realise that the times have changed. And in this case, NCP is a breakaway from the Congress, so  they have as much right to share such hopes.

On the other side, Shiv Sena seems to be losing its foothold. Ideologically close to the BJP, its supporters seem to be switching to BJP which is now at its heights. BJP was the senior partner in the alliance, but it would have still helped if Shiv Sena had stood in even fewer seats. Shiv Sena could take the risk and bargain for more seats, because the alliance is strong anyway.

Smaller mandate worse?

It is a setback for the BJP, because they didn’t get such a big majority. However, the Shiv Sena must be secretly (if not openly) overjoyed! Nowadays, there is no loyalty in politics. Bigger parties ignore their allies if they do very well and can manage on their own. The BJP had the union cabinet all to itself (Its allies do have ministries, but that is only a symbolic representation). Now, Shiv Sena will get their share (or rather, more than their share) in the state, and might even be able to get proper representation in the cabinet. The Shiv Sena is like the BJP in many ways, but still (even if they do a lot of politicking) the cabinet will have a wider view if they are in it. Especially with respect to language.

Prospects of BJP in future elections

BJP’s mandate in these elections does not necessarily mean they are going to do progressively worse. It is true that generally they won’t be all that popular, but they are running a really strong Central Government and they have strong grassroots support, and large amounts of money. People have voted for them in large numbers. Even if some of these people might not feel like doing so now, BJP will be constantly working hard and trying out various ways of getting these people to do so again. If the BJP does do badly in future elections, their major opponent, the Congress will find it more important to try and replace various regional parties (Maybe NCP in Maharashtra!). Once the Congress shifts its focus, BJP will make a comeback.

BJP is going to be a really strong party for a long time.