Fake Video: How it changed the results of the Dubbak by-election in Telangana

The fake news was short-lived, but very significant and very well timed.

By-elections were held for the Dubbak assembly constituency in Telangana on 3rd November 2020. Results were out on the 10th. The election was held due to the death of the sitting MLA Solipeta Ramalinga Reddy from the ruling Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS).

TRS was confident of winning this seat. The main fight seemed to be between the Central ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Indian National Congress which is the main opposition in the state as well as in the centre. It appeared that the two parties were not fighting to win, but to be the runner up candidate (next to TRS).

On the morning of the voting day, videos were circulated stating that the Congress candidate Cheruku Srinivas Reddy had joined TRS. In the past, as many as 12 out of the 19 Congress MLAs had joined TRS. So these videos didn't seem very strange. Also, Cheruku Srinivas Reddy had been in TRS earlier, and had joined Congress just before this election. What's more, it appeared that two prominent TV channels were broadcasting them. The fact is, these were fake videos! Cheruku Srinivas Reddy was still in Congress.

Once Congress saw what was happening they began to try and inform the voters that these videos were fake. It is likely that they were not able to inform many voters on time (specially the people who voted in the morning). The ones who spread the videos would have planned well in advance and got everything setup for spreading the message. Whereas Congress would suddenly have had to act quickly on something they were not prepared for.

Which party would benefit from these videos?

So far there has been no evidence on who circulated these videos. But one can definitely say who would have benefited from them. Definitely those responsible for spreading the videos were helping the beneficiaries.

Congress has been the main opposition in the state. So most people who are against the TRS led state government would normally vote for Congress. But this time, after seeing the video, they would have thought that there would be no point in voting for Congress. They would have all voted for BJP.

Among the Congress supporters, those who saw the videos would have thought that they don't have the option of voting for Congress. They would have voted for what they thought was the next best option (maybe NOTA).

Among those who saw the video, only those who liked Chenuru Srinivas Reddy personally (irrespective of which party he was in) would have voted for Congress.

The videos are unlikely to have helped TRS much, but they definitely helped BJP a lot.

BJP won the Dubbak by-election with a margin of just 1,079 votes (0.65% of the votes). No doubt there are other reasons for BJP's gain in vote-share, but the fake video is what would have made them win. The party won 38.47% of the votes; TRS came second securing 38.47%; and Congress came third securing 13.48%.

Government may stop acting so confident. Party may have to take on BJP instead of Congress.